By Professor Bheki Mngomezulu
Coalitions are a global phenomenon. Some countries such as Australia, Denmark, Germany, India, and many others have vast experience on how to form and manage coalitions. Within Africa, many countries have struggled to keep coalitions functional.
Deciding on the type of coalition is critical. A pre-election coalition ensures that agreements are reached on time before going to the electorate. By contrast, post-election coalitions are done in haste and are necessitated by the election results. As such, they are not sustainable.
South Africa experimented with this kind of governance system through the Government of National Unity (GNU). It was short-lived. In recent times, coalition governments have run different municipalities across South Africa with devastating effects!
Since 2004, the ANC has continued to be the governing party albeit with a reduced majority. In 2019, the ANC obtained a low 57.5% of the votes – down from 62.1 the party recorded in 2014.
Given the ANC’s performance in the 2021 Local Government Election (LGE) where it lost many of the metros, and given the concerns raised by the electorate on issues such as increased unemployment, energy crisis, sustained inequalities, and the increased number of political parties, the ANC has again realised a decline in this year’s election.
While the ANC’s support has declined, the support for the DA, which is the official opposition, is also not increasing to be able to replace the ANC immediately. From 89 seats in 2014, the DA obtained 84 seats in 2019.
As the third largest party, the EFF has been on an upward trajectory. It moved from 25 seats in 2014 to 44 in 2019. However, in the 2024 elections, this growth has proven not to be enough to upset the ANC. The EFF has simply fallen short of replacing the DA as the official opposition party.
Given this situation, prospects for a coalition government has become a reality in some of the provincial governments and at a national level.
In fact, going forward, the possibility of any single political party obtaining beyond 60% of the votes is very minimal.
This is concerning because for any constitutional amendment to happen, the requirement is a two-thirds majority. As things stand, neither the constitution nor the electoral system will change.
The only logical conclusion is that for the next ten years, South Africa must brace herself for coalition governments and related challenges as evidenced in several municipalities across the country.
What is needed is to plan for these and draw lessons from the countries that already have experience in this kind of government.
There was too much excitement about the participation of independent candidates in the 2024 general election. Indeed, this was a historic development. However, the excitement was somewhat unjustifiably high. It is true that independent candidates provide the electorate with the option to vote directly for their representatives – something not possible through the party system.
But this excitement should have limits. Firstly, independent candidates were not voted for as a block – each one of them were independent. This showed that individual candidates had faint voice.
Secondly, smaller parties have in the past been co-opted by bigger political parties. In the future, if successful, candidates could too find themselves co-opted by other political parties. A political party which needs a seat or two to clinch power could lobby independent candidates in the same manner that they are lobbying new and smaller parties.
As is the case with political parties, not all independent candidates clinched seats at a national level. After losing in the election, these candidates will now decide on a few options. Some will quit politics. Some will regroup and try their luck in the next LGE. Others will join political parties either voluntarily.
Therefore, while the participation of independent candidates might be a good thing for democratic consolidation, it does not address the country’s political woes.
Current political trends point towards a possibility of coalition governments at national and provincial levels. In the absence of a coalition framework, we can brace ourselves for turbulent times!
- Professor Mngomezulu is the Director of the Centre for the Advancement of Non-Racialism and Democracy at the Nelson Mandela University.
