ANC power brokers will seek to bolster position in coalition talks

Dr Ongama Mtimka

With election results firmly putting the ANC at just above 40%, well below the 50% mark last weekend, the stage is set for the formation of a coalition government.

Fierce debates and discussions among political parties can be expected. There is a lot at stake as parties consider how best to constitute a government for South Africa going forward. Initial rhetoric suggests a willingness to work with everyone, despite some conditions.

The ANC is well-positioned to lead the discussions about forming coalitions. The party has received the lion’s share of the vote. As such, between them and the second-biggest party, the DA, it is going to be up to the ANC to choose who best constitutes a coalition.

Several things must be considered to influence the ANC’s choice of a coalition partner. Firstly, there is the role of power brokers within the party.  They are people who wield power supporting the current top seven or those who represent remnants of recently defeated factions currently dormant.

The coalition discussions and the rise of former President Jacob Zuma to be the third-biggest party present a moment of revival for some in the ANC. Both camps are going to use coalitions to not just secure a coalition partner but to also strengthen their position within the internal politics of the ANC.

As such the tug-of-war will not only be between the ANC and the prospective political parties it seeks to go into a coalition with, but also among ANC politicians vying to have the most influence and control over this process because of the perceived gain that such influence could afford any person who is going to be perceived as having played an important power broking role in the securing of a coalition.

Secondly, the role of ideology and perceptions cannot be understated. The ANC still understands itself as attempting to advance a revolution, despite having been the governing party since 1994.

What this means is that concepts of courage, anti-white, not selling out, and so on are still employed instrumentally to frame people’s revolutionary credentials.  As such, political ideas, behaviour, and choices are most likely judged based on their impressions rather than actual substance in a pragmatic sense.

That attitude and approach have real consequences in that at times it enables political choices and at times it constrains them.

In practical terms, some within the ANC are going to push the party towards a coalition with the breakaway factions of the party, or fractions while others will attempt to push the party towards more pragmatic options. These choices are represented by the MK Party, the EFF and the DA as main competing alternative partners and then the rest as add-ons.

After all the toing and froing, I argue that a compromise position will be a choice that pulls many allies along, rather than a decided victory of any of the factions. My sense is that we will emerge from all this with a government of national unity, not any position that may reflect the victory of one faction over another.

However, much of the discussions about the national level coalition also affect subnational levels, provinces and municipalities. This adds the role of power brokers at those levels and their ambitions into the national discussions and ultimate decisions to be made.

Even with that variable in play, it can be argued that the parties will settle on some variation of a government of national unity.

Dr Ongama Mtimka is a political analyst based at Nelson Mandela University, the executive chairperson of the South African Political Risk Institute, and a resident analyst for the SABC during the 2024 National General Elections. He writes in his personal capacity.