OPINION: Looking in on the two biggest winners of the 2024 elections

BY: Dr. Ronesh Dhawraj, SABC News Research Editor

The 2024 national and provincial elections (NPE) may have come and gone, the political maneuverings are yet to unfurl as to how and what national and the different provincial governments will look like for the next five years.

As I write this, parliament has confirmed that its first sitting will happen this Friday, 14 June 2024.

But as with every major election, there is a need to reflect on some of the major electoral shifts and movements.

There is no denying that the two biggest stories of these elections were undoubtedly the mind-numbing debut of uMkhonto we Sizwe (MK), coupled with the meteoric rise of the Patriotic Alliance (PA).

Did anyone see MK coming?

In a recent media briefing, secretary-general of the governing African National Congress (ANC), Fikile Mbalula, conceded that his party severely underestimated the level of support commanded by former party president, Jacob Zuma – especially in KwaZulu-Natal. Strangely, Mbalula quipped that had it not been for Cyril Ramaphosa, the ANC would have dipped to 40%. This was five years earlier, a few days after the 2019 general elections. In that year, the ANC won a comfortable 57.5%.

Perhaps Mr Mbalula is psychic; he foresaw the ANC’s (2024) declining electoral fortunes way ahead of everyone else.

Most opinion polls preceding the 2024 election conservatively estimated that Zuma’s MK party would inflict damage on the ANC. None, however, predicted the catastrophic blow eventually suffered by the ANC nationally and in provinces such as KwaZulu-Natal, Mpumalanga and Gauteng.

With KwaZulu-Natal going into the election with the second highest number of registered voters (21%), the province was always going to be a battleground for the ANC. And with Zuma in the picture, the electoral terrain was no easier.

Here alone, the ANC plunged a massive 37.02-percentage points, from 54.01% in 2019 to 16.99% in this election.

The result was brutal for the ANC.

The party did not even make ‘official opposition’ in KwaZulu-Natal; that’s how poorly the party performed here.

Usually, by-elections are a fair harbinger of things to come.

However, even by-election results did not offer an inkling of the damage that was to be unleashed against the ANC and other opposition parties such as Julius Malema’s Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) or the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP).

Of the six (6) by-elections MK contested, it performed marginally well in uPhongolo and abaQulusi and in a single ward in Mpumalanga. In the others, MK received minimal support, to the comfort of parties such as the ANC, IFP and EFF.

In a post-election briefing at the Results Operation Centre (ROC) at Gallagher Estate, Malema jeered at his party’s lackluster showing in these elections, saying that the KwaZulu-Natal results of 2019 was a mere loan from Zuma’s MK.

Malema went as far as saying that those voters (who voted for it in 2019) was never theirs to begin with; it was an anti-ANC vote that had now rightfully gravitated back to a party such as Zuma’s MK.

You would recall KwaZulu-Natal was the one province which accounted for most of the EFF’s frenzied electoral fortunes in 2019.

But how does MK measure up against other ANC breakaways?

While MK is not the first breakaway from the governing ANC, it remains to date the only one to have inflicted the most amount of damage on the ANC. How else does one begin to explain the approximate 17-percentage point drubbing in the 2024 election?

The 2024 general election national result stands out as the ANC’s first-ever descent below the 50% threshold since democracy.

Of course, many will argue that the party did in fact drop to 47.51% in the 2021 Local Government Elections.

Granted, this is true. But losing majority status in a general election is huge.

So, going back to previous ANC breakaways, let us have a look at past political entities that broke away; and their resultant harm done to the governing party:

The remarkable thing about Zuma’s influence is that when Cope came about in mid-2008 soon after the ANC’s landmark Polokwane National Conference where Thabo Mbeki was denied a third term as party president, the ANC actually increased their votes by 700 000 on the national ballot and 900 000 on the provincial ballot.

Most of this support came from Zuma’s home province of KwaZulu-Natal.

And when the ANC unceremoniously forced Zuma to step down as the country’s president in February 2018, the ANC lost in the region of 1.4-million votes nationally and 1.5-million votes provincially in 2019.

KwaZulu-Natal accounted for 33% of these losses, or just over 500 000 votes lost.

Understanding where MK’s support came from

Of the nine provinces, MK performed the best in KwaZulu-Natal, Gauteng and Mpumalanga.

The party now has seats in seven of nine provinces, barring the Northern Cape and Western Cape.

In Mpumalanga, the party is now the official opposition to the ANC.

Another noteworthy fact is that of the eight metros, MK performed the best in just four, namely eThekwini in KwaZulu-Natal and all three of Gauteng’s metros. Interestingly, eThekwini provided the party with 37% of its total provincial tally (just over 1.5-million votes). Please see table below for a clearer picture of this electoral feat:

The other big winner of the 2024 general election

Of course, the other big winner of the 2024 general election cycle was the Patriotic Alliance.

Formed in 2013 by businessmen and former convicts, Kenny Kunene and Gayton McKenzie, the PA fared exceptionally well in Gauteng and the coastal provinces of Eastern Cape, Northern Cape and the Western Cape where notable Coloured communities are said to reside.

Of the eight metros, most of the PA’s support is concentrated in the Eastern Cape’s Nelson Mandela Bay, Gauteng’s Johannesburg, Ekurhuleni and Tshwane; and the Western Cape’s Cape Town.

Like the MK party, the PA now has national representation in the National Assembly with 9 seats.

What could have led to such a decisive haul for the PA?

Political pundits are probably still scratching their heads trying to make sense of the PA’s remarkable showing in the 2024 polls.

But to fully understand the party’s results one has to go back to the 2021 municipal elections.

The pivot for the PA came in August 2020 with the death of Eldorado teenager, Nathaniel Julies (16), who was allegedly shot and killed by police while on his way to the local shop.

Enter the PA.

The surrounding local coloured communities in places like Reverly, Ennerdale and Eldorado Park began rallying behind the PA seeking justice for Julies. Soon enough, the PA began displacing the ANC and DA in local by-elections, rewarding the party for displaying more empathy.

And then came the 2021 local elections.

The PA performed extremely well countrywide, winning approximately 265 000 votes, a massive improvement on the 22 000 votes it received in 2016. In the 2021 elections, the PA witnessed their vote numbers spiral from 3835 in Johannesburg to 54 176 – an increase of just over 50 000 votes. Similar jumps were seen in places such as Tshwane, Ekurhuleni and Cape Town.

From a mere five seats in the 2016 local government elections, the PA now had 75 council seats, with mayors installed in the Western Cape and North West.

While McKenzie took up the post of mayor in the Central Karoo District Municipality, Ashley Sauls was installed as Beaufort West first citizen.

The party’s 2021 results also facilitated several coalition arrangements where the PA was rewarded with a few MMC (member of mayoral committee) positions

The PA’s growth in the 2021 elections was phenomenal.

Just before the 2024 general elections, the party had been making inroads in by-elections. For example, the PA won two wards off the ANC and DA in Swartland and Oudtshoorn where a higher turnout favoured it.

Also, in Cederberg, the PA came a close second to the Cederberg First Residents Association, losing ward 3 by just 92 votes.

This was a former ANC ward. The candidate, Maxwell Heins, who won moved from the ANC where he won the ward in the 2021 LGE.

So the momentum was there. No one can claim to have been surprised by the PA’s 2024 electoral performance.

Other factors that galvanized support for the PA in the 2024 elections were its ‘God First’ policy, it’s widely-publicized anti-illegal immigrant stance; and its social media footprint.

Party leaders Kunene and McKenzie were pushing videos on TikTok, X and Facebook regularly answering voters’ concerns and queries, most while on the actual campaign trail from the backseat of their motor vehicles.

Voters like an inspirational story too. And there is no doubt that Kunene and McKenzie ‘inspired’ people to be better than what their lot in life is. They had a story. Despite their prison life and life of criminality, South Africans could still make something of their lives. And voters bought into this narrative.

The simple, everyday language that they used too played a role.

People could identify with these two former criminals-turned-businessmen-cum-politicians.

The final act…enter the KINGMAKER!

No matter which way you look at it, South African voters have spoken. They have given a mandate to several political parties to manage their country and its nine provinces for the next five years.

How the politicians wrangle among themselves for the best political outcome is yet to be seen.

One thing is for certain though that both the MK party and PA will play a major role in stitching together durable coalition pacts among multiple players. And in several of these arrangements, MK and PA will play royal kingmaker with lofty rewards in tow.

Dr. Ronesh Dhawraj is SABC News Research Editor at SABC News & Current Affairs